President Obama is asking more efforts from GM and CHRYSLER

·         Still freezing at night but shiny during the day : DJ -3.3%, S&P500 -3.5%, NASDAQ -2.8%, NIKKEI -1.5% and EUROSTOXX -5.1% and bouncing back by 1,5% right now.

·         Some overbooking in the agendas: Cas-Shiller index, consumer confidence, PMI will be released this week. The ECB will meet and the G20 top is likely to deliver no breaking news.

·         CAR INDUSTRY: President Obama is asking more efforts from GM (and gave the company 2 more months). CHRYSLER is expected to finalise a deal with FIAT within 4 weeks. The chapter 11 option cannot be excluded.

·         The total amount of  money paid out, lent or guaranteed in the US by either the State or the FED is approaching 13trillions USD, more or less the land’s GDP.

·         VIX is rising to 45.5. Gold is down at 920 USD per oz as the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) at 47.5 USD. The USD is up against the EUR at 1.33. CMS 10-2 years spread is stable at 1.57. The 5y CMS stands at 2.682 and the 3y at 2.145.

 

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Tourism and transport remain under pressure

·         US stock market in great shape: DJ +2.3%, S&P500 +2.3%, NASDAQ +3.8%, NIKKEI -0.1% and EUROSTOXX +0.4% and up by 0.2% right now.

·         US : cyclical stocks were hot yesterday in NY, thanks to somewhat better economic news (new home sales, PMI and revised GDP for 4Q).

·         Tourism and transport remain under pressure: AIR FRANCE has announced a 200 mlns EUR loss for 2008 and is likely to book a zero profit for this year.

·         VIX is down to nearly 40 (40.3). Gold is up at 935.4 USD per oz as the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) at 52.3 USD. The USD is stable against the EUR at 1.355. CMS 10-2 years spread is stable at 1.52. The 5y CMS stands at 2.757 and the 3y at 2.264.

 

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S&P500: best monthly rally for 17 years!

Late bull run in the US ; DJIA recovers a 110 point drop in the final hour of trading to close up 1.17%. S&P500 +0.96%, NSDQ +0.82%.

Economic data quite +ve: growth in durable goods orders (+3.4%) and better than expected new home sales.

Busy day for economic data, notably GDP in the USA.

Feeling of growing optimism that government efforts to revive the economy are working.

S&P500 enjoying best monthly rally for 17 years! Financials up +4.6%. The sector has rallied 55% since March 6^th.

Govt debt auctions in the US and the UK were not as successful as hoped, pushing yields slightly higher.

Asia also up: NIKKEI +1.84%, Hang Seng +2.9%.

Crude up at $53.30. Expectations of a recovery in fuel demand on signs that the global economy is stabilizing.

Gold stable @ $936.

Rally in stocks and a gradual return of a risk appetite reflected in currency movements. Investors seeking higher yielding assets. $ and YEN weaker.

€/$ @ 1.3583. VIX @ 42.25. 10-2 yr spread @ 156bps. 5 yrs CMS @ 2.86%. 3 yr CMS @ 2.33%.

Europe timid this morning, quite flat. US futures positive.

 

 

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Despite some good news, negative announcements (jobs, exports) remain the rule

·         Some legitimate profit taking: DJ -1.5%, S&P500 -2.0%, NASDAQ -2.5%, NIKKEI -0.1% and EUROSTOXX +0.3%  and down by 0.5% right now.

·         Markets are back from the euphoria over the past sessions. This is logical and necessary. Despite some good news, negative announcements (jobs, exports) remain the rule.

·         VIX is slightly down at 42.9. Gold is down too at 920.5 USD per oz as the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) at 50.9 USD. The USD is slightly up against the EUR at 1.347. CMS 10-2 years spread is stable at 1.57. The 5y CMS stands at 2.814 and the 3y at 2.29.

 

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US plans to take over up to USD1 trillion in US banks' legacy assets unveiled

1. US Market Recap

• US Treasury Secretary’s bank rescue plan was warmly welcomed by the market:
• DOW up 497 points (+6.8%) to 7,776 (-11.4% YTD)
• S&P 500 up 54 points (+7.1%) to 823 (-8.9% YTD)
• NASDAQ up 99 points (+6.8%)  to 1,556 (-1.4% YTD)

All ten sectors of the S&P 500

• Policies:
• US Treasury Secretary unveiled his plans to take over up to USD1 trillion in US banks’ legacy assets, a strategy in which former Secretary Paulson had abandoned due to the central question of “pricing”:
• A public-private partnership will take USD75b-USD100b from the government’s existing USD700b TARP funds to match private investment dollar-for-dollar, and an asymmetrical loans (of up to 1:12) from the FDIC and the Fed to generate up to USD500b in purchasing power; the purchases could eventually grow to USD1 trillion, roughly half the est. USD2 trillion of legacy assets on bank books now.
• How it works: Under a typical transaction, for every USD100 in assets purchased from banks, the private sector would put up USD7 and that would be matched by USD7 from the government; the remaining USD86 would be covered by the government loan.
• FDIC expects to finance as much as USD500b in purchases of residential and commercial real estate loans, but also reiterates its view that there will be more bank failures.
• White House National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers said some of the major firms have suggested a willingness and eagerness to take part; private institutions of asset under management of USD10b have been targeted as potential participants; BlackRock, Carlyle, and PIMCO had indicated interests to come onboard.
• Secretary Geithner will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tue; the administration will unveil its plan for financial regulation overhaul later this week.

 

2) European Update

• ARCELOR MITTAL : Eu750m convertible offering to refinance debt…Q1EBITA guidance confirmed
• UBS: agreed to sell as many as 55 of its US retail branches (USD 15bn of AUM) to Stifel Fincl. Corp
• CREDIT SUISSE: says it had a “strong” start in 2009. Looks to issue 100m new shares (9% of capital) and to cut cost base by CHF2Bn
• GENERALI: Moody’s affirms AA3 (IFSR) rating with stable
• VINCI: led a group which won a Eur1Bn contract (30 years) in Slovak Republic
• DEUTSCHE BOERSE: may look at targets in the US derivatives (Handelsblatt)
• METRO: Q4 net Eur691m missing short of analysts estimates (Eur729m)
• SIEMENS: CEO expects the company’s sale of green technology to rise on government stimulus programme money

 

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Société Générale bosses give up stock options

1.      US Market Recap

• US markets were able to eke out two weeks of back-to-back gains:
• DOW down 122 points (-1.7%) to 7,278 (+0.8% WTD; -17.1% YTD)
• S&P 500 down 16 points (-2.0%) to 769 (+1.6% WTD; -14.9% YTD)
• NASDAQ down 26 points (-1.8%)  to 1,457 (+1.8% WTD; -7.6% YTD)
  
  
• Policies:
• A public-private partnership to back private investors’ purchases of bad assets, with government support coming from the USD700b bailout fund; this would match private investors dollar for dollar and share any profits equally;
  
  
• Expansion of a recently launched Fed program that provides loans for investors to buy securities backed by consumer debt as a way to increase the availability of auto loans, student loans, and credit card debt; under Geithner’s plan for the toxic assets, that USD1 trillion program would be expanded to support purchases of toxic assets;
  
  
• Use of the FDIC, which insures bank deposits, to support purchases of toxic assets, tapping into this agency’s expertise in closing down failed banks and disposing of bad assets.

2) European Update

·         RBS may have losses of £ 500m form loans to Cattles Plc.

·         E.ON isn’t planning any large acquisitions over the next two years.

·         Daimler will raise EUR 1.95bn (10% capital increase) selling shares to Abu Dhabi’s Aabar Investments. 96.4 million new Daimler shares at EUR 20.27.

·         Société Générale bosses give up stock options.

·         Deutsche Bank will likely appoint Rainer Neske as head of the PB unit .

·         RWE is calling for subsidies form the German government to invest in the construction of environmentally friendly coal-fired power stations.

 

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USA: Despite the huge increase in the monetary base, it seems that the circulation of it is still in low gear.

·         Some profit takings quite logically, : DJ -1.2%, S&P500 -1.3%, NASDAQ -0.5%, NIKKEI -0.3% and EUROSTOXX +1.0% and down by 1.3% right now.

·         The FED announced that it will buy back some 300 bns USD of treasuries. Despite the huge increase in the monetary base, it seems that the circulation of it is still in low gear. Inflation is likely to come back sooner or later when the situation normalizes and bonds, govies in particular, may then suffer the most.

·         The labour market is going from bad to worse. This is quite normal in such an environment and don’t forget that it is a late indicator for the economy, hence for the stock markets.

·         VIX is bouncing back at 43.6. Gold is bouncing back significantly at 961.2 USD per oz as the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) at 48.8 USD. The USD gets weaker against the EUR at 1.37. CMS 10-2 years spread is stable at 1.49. The 5y CMS stands at 2.724 and the 3y at 2.225.

 

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The Federal Reserve $1.15 trillion move to bring down borrowing costs

1. US Market Recap

 

• Markets ended on decidedly positive note after the Fed’s decision to aggressively buy Treasuries and mortgage bonds:
• DOW up 91 points (+1.2%) to 7,487 (-14.7% YTD)
• S&P 500 up 16 points (+2.1%) to 794 (-12.1% YTD)
• NASDAQ up 29 points (+2.0%)  to 1,491 (-5.4% YTD)
  
  
• Nine out of the ten sectors of S&P 500 were up, with Consumer Staples being the only sector that was down
  
  
• Policies:
• The Federal Reserve opened a new front in its battle to bring down borrowing costs after the FOMC voted to keep maintain fed funds rate at 0.25% BUT expand the Fed’s balance sheet up to USD1.15 trillion. This would include a pledge to buy as much as USD300b of Treasuries and step up purchases of bonds backed by government controlled mortgage companies.
• President Obama said he has “complete confidence” in Treasury Secretary Geithner, and the furor over bonuses paid by AIG shows the urgent need to overhaul financial market rules; Florida Republican Representative Connie Mack drew first blood after calling Geithner “a disaster” and should resign or be fired.
• The US House of Representatives plans a vote today (Thu) on a measure to impose a 90% tax on executive bonuses paid by AIG and other companies getting more than USD5b in federal bailout funds; the House Majority Leader expects it to pass in overwhelmingly bipartisan fashion.
• China’s top negotiator on climate change, Xie Zhenhua (Vice Chairman of NDRC), said a US proposal to impose duties on imports from countries that do not limit their carbon emissions was “an excuse to impose trade restrictions”;  bonuses and to reduce the systemic risks to the US financial system.
  
  
• Others:
• Consumer Discretionary:
• McDonald’s Corp, the world’s largest restaurant company, is serving its McCafe line of coffees in about 60% of its US locations and is on schedule to start a national advertising campaign mid-year; more than 8,000 of its 13,900 US outlets have the offerings, up from more than 7,000 in Jan.
• Starbucks Corp plans to expand marketing to shore up the company’s position as a coffe authority as it faces competition in the US from McDonald’s Corp and Dunkin’ Donuts Inc.; the world’s largest coffee-shop operator is rolling out new expresso machines in 4,000 cafes, and is “well on track” to cut USD500m in spending to generate over USD500m in free cash flow this year.
• Health Care:
• Pfizer is talking with US regulators about whether it must divest some animal-health products to get government approval for its planned acquisition of rival drug-maker Wyeth; Sanofi-Aventis said last week it wanted to expand its animal unit, while Eli Lilly has also express interest in Pfizer’s animal business.
• Info. Technology:
• IBM is in talks to buy Sun Microsystems for at least USD6.5b (or USD10-11/share) to dominate the computer server market; Sun counts General Electric and General Motors among its customers, with servers accounting for almost half its total sales. Purchasing Sun would give IBM a boost in blade servers and help fend off Hewlett-Packard and new comer Cisco Systems, which entered the server market this week.
  
  
• Economic data – CPI slightly ahead of est., not still not a major concern yet:
• Feb CPI of +0.4% (MOM) and +0.2% (YOY), vs. est. of +0.3% and 0.0%.
• Feb core CPI of +0.2% (MOM) and +1.8% (YOY), vs. est. of +0.1% and +1.7%.
• 4Q current account balance of USD132.8b, vs. est. of USD137.1b.
• 19 Mar (Thu): FOMC rate decision, weekly jobless (initial and continuing) claims, leading indicator

2) European News

·         Arcelor Mittal confirms it’s considering halting operations at two coal mines in Siberia.

·         BAA may face breakup as regulator orders sale of three airports in two years.

·         Delhaize acquires 4 supermarkets in Romania with revenue of EUR 12m

·         Swiss watch exportation for February is down 22% to CHF 955m.

·         UBS will buy back outstanding lower tier2 debt for up to EUR 1bn, using available cash.

·         BASF is seeking acquisitions of construction chemicals companies in Asia Pacific to tap a growing market.

·         Sanofi won a US panel’s backing to introduce a new pill for erratic heartbeat over concerns that it may increase the risk of death in some patients.

·         RBS is planning to sell its Singapore retail and commercial banking businesses, which may affect 660 jobs.

 

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