Leading indicators improving slightly

·       Inflexion point or do we still have to keep our breath ? : DJ +0.5%, S&P500 +0.6%, NASDAQ +0.8%, NIKKEI +5.0% and EUROSTOXX +3.7% and now up 0.3% at the opening.

·       Some leading indicators have improved slightly. The German business confidence index in particular inched up in December? The German authorities are willing to injecting money into the economy for a total amount equivalent to 1.6% of the GDP. Better late than never. In the US, existing home sales bounced back last December by 5% as buyers are bottom-fishing (keep in mind that 60% of the sales in California are fire sales)

·       Some financial institutions have already released preannouncements of the 2008 results. In Europe, the news was warmly received (ING, KBC, BARCLAY’S) as a kind of relieve. It is pretty clear that every one has to be extremely careful and that the final figures are likely to be very pessimistic. The present year must show a different face for the top managers who survived (no need to say that some paid for their mistakes, some did not and a third category just had to leave and we will definitely regret the latter!). This being said, the IMF has revised the global amount of likely write-downs upwards and only 2 thirds have been booked so far.

·       Vix is down 45.7. Gold is bouncing back (technical rebound) at 895 USD per oz (remains very volatile) and the oil price is up as well at 46.8 USD. The USD is weaker against the EUR at 1.33. 10-2 years spread is at 1.37.

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