Talks between FORTIS and BNPPARIBAS on the right tracks

·         US and European markets not in phase : DJ -1.2%, S&P500 +1.6%, NASDAQ -2.4%, NIKKEI +1.5% et EUROSTOXX +2.8%and down by 2.1% right now.

·         PHARMA : under pressure yesterday as Obama is about to launch new measures not favourable to the sector. In the present climate any piece of bad news from a sector that has outperformed the market has a rapid and dramatic impact on the share prices.

·         GM : net loss of some 31 bn USD in 2008 and cumulative losses of 86 bn USD since 2005. Turnover was down 33% in 4Q 2008 only!

·         FORTIS : some comments in the Belgian press that talks with BNPPARIBAS are on the right tracks. The GM on March 6th in Utrecht has been cancelled and the vote on a few amendments has been postponed until April 26^th. Nice performance of the share YTD!

·         HOUSING MARKET US : Existing home prices fell 16% in 2008 against -5% in 2007 and -7% in 4Q 2008 only. Existing home inventories are equal to 10 months of consumption. We are approaching the bottom but we probably still need a few more months.

·         INFLATION : fell to 1% in Europe. Leading rates cut by the ECB in March more than probable.

·         VIX is slightly up at 44.7. Gold is stable at 944 USD per oz while oil (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is up at 44.5 USD. The USD is edging up against the EUR at 1.266. CMS 10-2 years spread is somewhat higher at 1.40. The 5y CMS stands at 2.816 and the 3y at 2.379.

 

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