DEXIA is likely to get rid of some 900 employees worldwide

So much cash to be invested: DJ +1.25%, S&P500 +1.5%, NASDAQ +1.2%, NIKKEI +0.8% and EUROSTOXX -1.1%, and up 1.2% now.

INFLATION : prices in Germany were stable in May y-o-y and down some 0.4% in Belgium, mainly due to the drop in oil prices. Nonetheless, the latter have surged since last February, what should contribute to reflation if this trend goes on. Conversely, price awareness is king amongst cies (BELGACOM asked its suppliers to reduce their prices by up to 20%) and consumers (DELHAIZE left the price of rice unchanged for the 365 products range but raised it by 30% for DELHAIZE products range). Difficult in such a situation to make forecasts for inflation. In the end, the main source might once again be oil  and raw materials, but we’ll have to see.

INDIA : GDP growth higher than expected in 1Q at 5.8% (5% forecast), thanks to construction and government spending (in period of national election)

BANKING SECTOR : DEXIA is likely to get rid of some 900 employees worldwide, of wich some 270 in Belgium and hire 200 top commercials for its home market at the same time. Rumouirs has it that it might also sell DEXIAM and the insurance business, reaffirming at the same time that it still believe in the bancassurance model. Can someone explain this to me?

VIX is down at 31.7. Gold is surging at 967 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) as well at 63.8 USD. The USD is somewhat weaker against the EUR at 1.40. 10-2 years spread is at 1.97. The 5y CMS stands at 2.87 and the 3y at 2.18.

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

UK: the amount of millionaires in GBP has shrunk by half, due to bad financial markets and the collapse of the real estate

Trend reversal at the end of the session in Europe after the release of a better than expected consumer confidence figure.

US ECONOMY: end of recession in the US is expected for end 3Q but a V-shaped recovery is unlikely, according to many economists. Europe should follow with a lag of one quarter. US consumer confidence bounced back in May at 54.9 from 39.2 and 42.6 forecast, mainly thanks to the anticipations.

UK: the amount of millionaires in GBP has shrunk by half from 489,000 down to 242,000. This is due to bad financial markets and the collapse of the real estate. This is going to have an impact of the AM business.

VIX is down at 30.6. Gold is down too at 949 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is slightly up at 60.6 USD. The USD is stable against the EUR at 1.40. 10-2 years spread is at 1.92. The 5y CMS stands at 2.84 and the 3y at 2.21.

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

Oil Consumption lower in 2009, but reduced exploration explains increase in price

Weakness before the closing last Friday in NY despite the support by export oriented cies which should benefit from the weaker USD. Stock exchanges are closed in the UK and the US today.

IFO : the German business confidence index is expected to have risen for the second month in a row, in reaction to the stimulus package and the lower interest rates. INFINEON stated that its turnover is likely to bottom out from the March’s lows.

OIL : relief amongst the oil producing countries since the brent rose above the 50 USD level. Consumption is expected to drop this year but exploration is also down by 20%. This explains why the price has bounced back.

VIX is bouncing back to 32.6. Gold is jumping at 954 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is stable at 60 USD. The USD is stable against the EUR at 1.40. 10-2 years spread is at 1.95. The 5y CMS stands at 2.85 and the 3y at 2.17.

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

The Fed revised recently its growth forecasts for the US

Not very clear so far: markets are bouncing back and the VIX is down significantly but at the same time gold is in great shape despite the disinflation. Oil price is up and the dollar is down.

UK: S&P might downgrade UK’s credit rating, which is AAA currently. We could see a lot of such reappraisal of States’ credit note in the near future.

US economy: The Fed revised recently its growth forecasts for the US, which is likely to shrink by between -1.3 and -2% in 2009 (previous forecasts dated from February and were between -05 and -1.3%)

VIX is bouncing back to 31.4. Gold is jumping at 951 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is up at 60 USD. The USD is down against the EUR at 1.394. 10-2 years spread is at 1.90. The 5y CMS stands at 2.74 and the 3y at 2.10.

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

Consumer confidence in Belgium at a highest point since last October

CONSUMPTION : consumer confidence in Belgium at a highest point since last October (looks like jobless people do not count) and the sentiment about future evolution has improved significantly too. This has to be put in parallel with what is happening to stock markets.

VIX : now under the 30 level. Another piece of good news!
BANKS : ABN-FORTIS might reduce staff count by 4000 to 5000. No big surprise !

VIX is now under the 30 level at 28.8. Gold is up at 927.6 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) stable at 58.6 USD. The USD is unchanged against the EUR at 1.36. 10-2 years spread is at 1.87. The 5y CMS stands at 2.70 and the 3y at 2.07.

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

Possible stabilisation of the British housing market

GBP : the Sterling is in a better shape in the context of a possible stabilisation of the British housing market, qualified by some foreign investors as a ”screaming buy”. Even institutional investors are very much tempted to make a come-back as the pound is still far below its LT historical average value.

BANKS : Lloyds has made a 4 bn GBP placement in order to buy back some pref shares detained by the State; Lloyds’ boss Mr Blank has resigned. Soc Gen new boss, Mr Oudéa, is not excluding new depreciations.

VIX is stable at 33. Gold is up at 931 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is stable at 55.7 USD. The USD is stable against the EUR at 1.347. 10-2 years spread is at 1.87. The 5y CMS stands at 2.66 and the 3y at 2.02.

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

Les chiffres du chômage aux USA empirent

·       Le chiffre sur les « jobless claims » aux USA était plus mauvais que prévu, une augmentation de 32k pour un total de 637k.

·       Les bons résultats de la société CA Inc a boosté le secteur Tech. Les actions financières dans le S&P500 ont repris 4%.

·       Le taux d'emprunt en $ (càd le 3 mois LIBOR) est au plus bas depuis 8 semaines > on peut dire que les actions prises par le gouvernement pour libérer le marché de crédit commence à apporter ses fruits.

·       VIX plus bas @ 31.37. Pour rappel, son niveau le plus haut était 80.86 en Novembre et sa moyenne sur 19 ans est 20.11.

·       L'or reste collé à $926. ur 2 semaines le prix est monté de 4.5%.

·       Le prix du baril un peu plus haut @ $58.70. Sur 2 semaines, on a gagné +10%.

·       € un peu à la baisse vs $ : 1.3580. Aujourd'hui on aura les chiffres sur le CPI et le GDP pour la zone €. On pourrait avoir la confirmation que l'économie de la zone € a rétrécit le plus en 13 ans !

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

Rumours are flooding the market on KBC

EUROPEAN BANKS : KBC asked the suspension of its on quotation today as rumours are flooding the market. DEXIA ‘s staff members who are also shareholders (via the PEA) are likely to vote against Mariani’s and Dehaene’s nomination due to their “very interesting” salary package. Results at Dexia were better than in the previous quarter. Financials might be under pressure as results are getting published and after such a rebound. The IMF asked European banks to run a stress-test too.

CHINA : industrial production is somewhat lower than expected in April (+7.3%) due to disappointing electricity production and exports but consumption is taking over with a +14.5% rise in April y-o-y.

VIX is down further at 32. Gold is up at 928 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is up at 58.3 USD. The USD is stable against the EUR at 1.37. 10-2 years spread is at 1.76. The 5y CMS stands at 2.71 and the 3y at 2.12.

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

Volatility at its lowest since Lehman collapsed

·       US stocks end the week on a high note : DJIA +1.96%, S&P+2.41%, NSDQ +1.33%. Jobs data was quite bad but not as bad as expected (539k jobs lost in April). Housing data was also better than expected. Results of govt stress tests reassured investors: financials in the S&P rally 23% over the week.

·       Some speculation that this rally might take a breather soon and let some of the fundamentals catch up.

·       General Motors losses 11% (over the week) as the company moves closer to bankruptcy.

·       VIX now down at 32.05, lowest level since Lehman collapsed.

·       Crude oil drops back from a 6 month high. Speculation that last week's 10% gain will not be sustained as global output increases. Barrel now @ $57.78

·       Gold still stable @ $914. Technical signals suggest the price may rise. Hedge fund managers have increased their net long positions.

·       Investors seeking higher risk, higher return products are putting pressure on $ "safe haven" status: €/$ @ 1.3618

 

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

TOYOTA : still a myth you can't undo?

STRESS TEST : 10 US banks amongst the 19 checked are to find some 75 bn USD extra to improve their solvency. Despite yesterday’s correction, futures are in positive territory, a sign that this serious challenge is behind us.

VIX : indicates that markets might go through a correction in the near future, at least some fear so.

OIL : in great shape. At this tempo, inflation might become a serious concern again for Mr Trichet and Bernanke. Both will certainly have to fulfil a nice task in the coming months (year?)

TOYOTA : still a myth you can’t undo? The Japanese car maker anticipates a second annual loss as sales are falling off a cliff. Small cars suffer as much as other segments

VIX is down further at 33.4. Gold is up at 916.4 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is up at 57.3 USD. The USD is down against the EUR at 1.34. 10-2 years spread is at 1.83. The 5y CMS stands at 2.77 and the 3y at 2.16.

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

GOLD : Central banks have significantly contributed to the price appreciation

• First resistance line broken : DJ +2.6%, S&P500 +3.4%, NASDAQ +2.6%, NIKKEI +1.7% (closed till Thursday) et EUROSTOXX +1.8%and up 0.6% at the opening.
  
  

• GOLD : Central banks have significantly contributed to the price appreciation and as quotas are still in place, the precious metal is likely not to suffer too much if bourses keep on rising.
  
  

• ECONOMY : Europe has revised growth forecast downwards for 2009 at -4%. This corresponds to the worst crisis since World war II. Unemployment and public deficit are likely to top out in 2010. Nonetheless, signs of inflexion are popping up : improvement in the US construction sector or in the semiconductor industry.
  
  

• BANKING SECTOR : BOA has denied any need for a capital increase. UBS +Q net loss amounts 2 bn CHF. The Swiss bank is as expensive as CREDIT SUISSSE but with much risk and worse prospects.
  
  

• VIX is down further at 34.5. Gold is up at 902.5 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is up at 53.6 USD. The USD is stable against the EUR at 1.33. 10-2 years spread is at 1.65. The 5y CMS stands at 2.74 and the 3y at 2.17.

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________ 

Citigroup may need to raise as much as US$10bn in new capital

The WSJ reports that Citigroup may need to raise as much as US$10bn in new capital.

Bloomberg data shows that short selling of banks is accelerating.   Short selling of the 18 banks undergoing the stress tests were twice as high on 15 April 09 as they were in July 08.  Between 27 Feb – 15 Apr 09, average short interest rose 47%, with Citigroup’s increase the most at 509%.

 

LONDON IS CLOSED TODAY

Fiat plans to purchase GM Europe (Opel and Saab) for an undisclosed amount.

Deutsche Telekom may sell its T-Mobile UK unit to France Telecom.

Solarworld reports Q1 figures above consensus, nothing mentioned on outlook.

Metro is planning to focus on China to become the world’s biggest consumer-electronics retailer. Metro is planning up to 300 more Media Markt stores in China in the medium future.

Bayer is not interested in large takeovers as it focuses on its goal to reduce debt toward EUR 10bn from EUR 14bn by the en d of the year.

Daimler and BMW said April U.S. car sales were down by 31 and 38% respectively.

Philips acquires Canadian Traxtal to expand its health-care business.

AB InBev is near a deal with KKR to sell South Korean beer assets for USD 1.8bn.

 

 

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________