Oil Consumption lower in 2009, but reduced exploration explains increase in price

Weakness before the closing last Friday in NY despite the support by export oriented cies which should benefit from the weaker USD. Stock exchanges are closed in the UK and the US today.

IFO : the German business confidence index is expected to have risen for the second month in a row, in reaction to the stimulus package and the lower interest rates. INFINEON stated that its turnover is likely to bottom out from the March’s lows.

OIL : relief amongst the oil producing countries since the brent rose above the 50 USD level. Consumption is expected to drop this year but exploration is also down by 20%. This explains why the price has bounced back.

VIX is bouncing back to 32.6. Gold is jumping at 954 USD per oz and the oil price (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) is stable at 60 USD. The USD is stable against the EUR at 1.40. 10-2 years spread is at 1.95. The 5y CMS stands at 2.85 and the 3y at 2.17.

 

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